We must not restrict university access
Restricting access to university threatens New Zealand’s productivity, writes Cristóbal Castro Barrientos, an AUT PhD candidate in economics.
He also argues the move also threatens New Zealand’s potential for innovation, social well-being, and the country’s international reputation as a place where excellence and equity co-exist.
Cristóbal’s commentary responds to the recent report of the University Advisory Group (UAG), which examines the future of New Zealand’s universities. The report recommends tightening entry requirements and moving toward a more “elitist” system, even restricting professional training in fields such as nursing or education.
The UAG argues that broad access has weakened the overall quality of tertiary education and generated “credential inflation” – where jobs that once required diplomas now demand university degrees, without equivalent improvements in graduates’ skills and knowledge. As the report said, “the easiest way to raise the standards and reputation of a university is to limit entry”. The government, however, rejected creating a separate system for universities, emphasising that quality should come from the relevance and outcomes of courses and qualifications, not simply more demanding entry requirements.
But partially closing the doors of university education risks creating new challenges in an already uncertain economy. Only 36% of New Zealand-born adults hold a tertiary qualification compared to 39% across the OECD; that number jumps to over 50% among immigrants living here. New Zealand starts from a weaker base in a global economy where human capital is critical. A move to further restrict access to university education could widen this gap unless the value and opportunities associated with degrees are simultaneously strengthened.
Over the last two decades, the economic returns to tertiary education have also become more inconsistent. An employee with a postgraduate degree still earns substantially more than someone without. However, the profitability of bachelor’s degrees and Level 4–6 certificates has declined or varies widely by sector. New Zealand ranks among the OECD countries with the lowest wage premiums for tertiary education, partly because a high minimum wage and progressive taxation reduce pay gaps across sectors and occupations. While higher education improves employment chances, many graduates do not enjoy rewards as great as their peers overseas. Tertiary enrolments have fallen since 2012, especially in technical institutes. If degrees no longer guarantee better incomes, raising entry barriers without addressing the problem of low wages could further discourage enrolment and deepen inequalities.
Gender is also central. In 2025, 58% of tertiary students are women, above the OECD average of around 55%. This inclusion has been a key factor in reducing the gender wage gap, which fell to a historic low of 5.2% in June 2025, down from 8.2% a year earlier. A highly educated female population contributes to equity, health, and civic participation. Maintaining this progress requires keeping tertiary education doors open. Tougher entry filters, if not accompanied by equity measures, could undermine the gains in gender equality that New Zealand is rightly proud of.
The same logic applies to ethnic equity. Māori and Pasifika remain underrepresented in higher education. Only 21% of Māori adults hold at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to 36% of Pākehā. The gaps begin at school: in 2022, just 34% of Māori and Pasifika school leavers achieved University Entrance, compared to about 50% nationally. Introducing stricter entry requirements without addressing these preparation gaps risks worsening inequality. Any reform must include mentoring, targeted scholarships, and support programmes – otherwise, the most excluded will be the hardest hit.
These realities underline a simple point: the value of a degree depends as much on labour demand as on educational supply. A more selective system does not necessarily produce higher wages, greater social mobility, or better research, unless the economy and institutions also evolve. For New Zealand, with its small market, high emigration, and reliance on specific industries, the risk of a simplistic “more elite” model is that it creates fewer graduates without addressing the real challenge: preparing them for meaningful, well-paid, and socially valuable work.
The true excellence of higher education lies in inclusion – ensuring more people, not fewer, can gain the skills that translate into productivity, innovation, and social well-being. Expanding access and improving degree quality, through courses that reflect and respond to New Zealand’s labour market needs, must go hand in hand. Restricting access while hoping quality will rise is a dangerous bet.
Useful links
- Cristóbal Castro Barrientos is a PhD candidate in Economics at AUT’s New Zealand Policy Research Institute
- Read about the University Advisory Group
- Study at AUT Business School