Cooperation vital to end dengue outbreak
A mosquito fumigation operation is being carried out in Rarotonga, after the first reported death from a dengue outbreak. Travellers to Rarotonga will experience temperature checks and bug-spraying stations on arrival.
But a single death does not mean the disease is out of control, AUT’s Dr Hammed Fatoyinbo told the Science Media Centre.
Several Pacific countries are experiencing outbreaks of dengue, including Samoa where the death toll stands at eight.
“The first reported dengue death in the current Cook Islands outbreak is very sad news and a reminder that, although many dengue infections are mild, the disease can become serious—particularly for older adults and those with underlying health conditions,” says Dr Fatoyinbo, who is a Lecturer in Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the School of Engineering, Computer and Mathematical Sciences at Auckland University of Technology.
“From a mathematical epidemiology perspective, a single death does not mean the outbreak is out of control. However, it does signal that transmission remains active within the community.
“The Cook Islands has been managing this outbreak since May 2025, with hundreds of cases reported, demonstrating that the virus continues to circulate rather than dissipating naturally,” says Dr Fatoyinbo.
“Dengue is spread by Aedes mosquitoes, which thrive in warm conditions and breed in small collections of standing water around homes and public spaces.
“When mosquito populations increase, infection rates can rise rapidly if prevention measures are not sustained. This is why vector control remains central to the public health response.”
Dr Fatoyinbo says his research found that dengue prevalence can be significantly reduced by implementing ‘integrated’ control strategies.
“These combine human prevention—such as using repellents, wearing long sleeves, and seeking early medical care—with aggressive vector control, including breeding site destruction and targeted spraying.
“Another critical component is the vigilant monitoring of human movement. Travel between islands or into unaffected areas can introduce the virus to new locations where mosquitoes are present, potentially expanding the outbreak’s footprint.
“The key message is that dengue outbreaks are manageable. With coordinated mosquito control, personal protection, strategic monitoring of movement, and early access to healthcare, transmission can be reduced and further severe cases prevented.
“Community cooperation is the most vital tool we have in protecting the Cook Islands together.”
Useful links
- Dr Hammed Fatoyinbo academic profile
- Analysis of Dengue Fever Transmission Dynamics with Multiple Controls: A Mathematical Approach
- Lyapunov stability analysis and optimization measures for a dengue disease transmission model
- Study mathematical sciences at AUT
- Science Media Centre website
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