Niven Winchester

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Academic appointments:

  • Principal Research Scientist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (2009 - 2019)


  • PhD, University of Nottingham
  • MEc, Australian National University
  • BCom (Hons I), University of Otago


Professor Winchester is passionate about using quantitative analysis to make the world a better place. He is an expert in climate policy analysis using computable general equilibrium models. Using these techniques, he has assisted governments in several countries to develop strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Professor Winchester also has an interest in sports economics. His research on sports ranking systems was the catalyst for the change to the bonus point system in The Rugby Championship and Super Rugby in 2016.

Professor Winchester is also Co-Editor of the Journal of Global Economic Analysis, a Senior Fellow at Motu Economic & Public Policy Research, and a Principal at Vivid Economics. Prior to joining AUT, he was a Principal Research Scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Research interests:

Professor Winchester's research focuses on analyses of climate, energy and trade policies using applied general equilibrium models. He is currently leading a multi-institution initiative to development the Climate PoLicy ANlysis (C-PLAN) model. This open-source tool will be used by the Climate Change Commission and government agencies to recommend policies to meet New Zealand’s climate goals.

Professor Winchester has also developed models to examine the economic and emissions impacts of climate policies in Argentina, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, South Korea, and Vietnam. His other recent research (1) evaluates the role of engineered wood products in a low-carbon future, (2) sets out regulations to reduce emissions from international aviation that are less costly than current measures, and (3) develops a model to predict which college quarterbacks will be successful in the National Football League.

Professor Winchester has published extensively in major peer-reviewed journals, including The American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, Energy Economics, The Energy Journal, and Environmental Science and Technology. He also advised several organizations on trade and energy issues, including the OECD, the US Federal Aviation Administration, and the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Fields of research:

  • Environment and Resource Economics

Professional activities:

Editorship, reviewing, examining, and judging

  • Editor, Journal of Global Economic Analysis (2016 - ongoing)

Research outputs:

Journal articles

  • Winchester, N., & Reilly, J. M. (2020). The economic and emissions benefits of engineered wood products in a low-carbon future. Energy Economics, 85. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104596

  • Winchester, N. (2019). A win-win solution to abate aviation CO2 emissions. Journal of Air Transport Management, 80, 101692. doi:10.1016/j.jairtraman.2019.101692

  • Zhang, D., Caron, J., & Winchester, N. (2019). Sectoral aggregation error in the accounting of energy and emissions embodied in trade and consumption. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 23(2), 402-411. doi:10.1111/jiec.12734

  • Winchester, N., & Reilly, J. M. (2019). The economic, energy and emissions impacts of climate policy in South Korea. Climate Change Economics, 10(03). doi:10.1142/s2010007819500106

  • Singh, A., Winchester, N., & Karplus, V. J. (2019). Evaluating India's climate targets: The implications of economy-wide and sector-specific policies. Climate Change Economics, 10(3), 29 pages. doi:10.1142/S201000781950009X

  • Winchester, N. (2018). Can tariffs be used to enforce Paris climate commitments?. The World Economy, 41(10), 2650-2668. doi:10.1111/twec.12679

  • Winchester, N., Ledvina, K., Strzepek, K., & Reilly, J. M. (2018). The impact of water scarcity on food, bioenergy and deforestation. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 62(3), 327-351. doi:10.1111/1467-8489.12257

  • Ledvina, K., Winchester, N., Strzepek, K., & Reilly, J. (2018). New data for representing irrigated agriculture in economy-wide models. Journal of Global Economic Analysis, 3(1), 122-155. doi:10.21642/jgea.030103af

  • Winchester, N., & Ledvina, K. (2017). The impact of oil prices on bioenergy, emissions and land use. ENERGY ECONOMICS, 65, 219-227. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.008

  • Zhang, X., Winchester, N., & Zhang, X. (2017). The future of coal in China. Energy Policy, 110, 644-652. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2017.07.001

  • Winchester, N. (2017). Is it time to shake up National Football League rankings?. International Journal of Sport Finance, 12, 32-48. Retrieved from

  • Winchester, N. (2016). Scoring points: How statistics helped change a rugby competition. Significance, 13(5), 38-41. doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2016.00965.x

  • Gavard, C., Winchester, N., & Paltsev, S. (2016). Limited trading of emissions permits as a climate cooperation mechanism? US–China and EU–China examples. Energy Economics, 58, 95-104. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.06.012

  • Qi, T., Winchester, N., Karplus, V. J., Zhang, D., & Zhang, X. (2016). An analysis of China's climate policy using the China-in-Global Energy Model. Economic Modelling, 52(Part B), 650-660. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2015.09.036

  • Winchester, N., & Reilly, J. M. (2015). The feasibility, costs, and environmental implications of large-scale biomass energy. Energy Economics, 51, 188-203. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.06.016

  • Lenten, L. J. A., & Winchester, N. (2015). Secondary behavioural incentives: Bonus points and rugby professionals. Economic Record, 91(294), 386-398. doi:10.1111/1475-4932.12185

  • Winchester, N., Malina, R., Staples, M. D., & Barrett, S. R. H. (2015). The impact of advanced biofuels on aviation emissions and operations in the U.S.. Energy Economics, 49, 482-491. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.024

  • Caron, J., Rausch, S., & Winchester, N. (2015). Leakage from sub-national climate policy: The case of Californias cap and trade program. The Energy Journal, 36(2). doi:10.5547/01956574.36.2.8

  • Qi, T., Winchester, N., Karplus, V. J., & Zhang, X. (2014). Will economic restructuring in China reduce trade-embodied CO2 emissions?. Energy Economics, 42, 204-212. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2013.12.011

  • Owen, P. D., & Winchester, N. (2014). The impact of US fresh milk production standards on dairy trade. Journal of Policy Modeling, 36(6), 1008-1021. doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2014.11.004

  • Winchester, N. (2014). Should bonus points be included in the Six Nations Championship?. New Zealand Economic Papers, 48(1), 96-101. doi:10.1080/00779954.2013.819776

  • Winchester, N., McConnachie, D., Wollersheim, C., & Waitz, I. A. (2013). Economic and emissions impacts of renewable fuel goals for aviation in the US. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 58, 116-128. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2013.10.001

  • Winchester, N., & Rausch, S. (2013). A numerical investigation of the potential for negative emissions leakage. American Economic Review, 103(3), 320-325. doi:10.1257/aer.103.3.320

  • Blanc, É., & Winchester, N. (2013). The impact of the EU Emissions Trading System on air passenger arrivals in the Caribbean. Journal of Travel Research, 52(3), 353-363. doi:10.1177/0047287512465960

  • Winchester, N. (2013). The impact of climate policy on US aviation. Journal of Transport, Economics and Policy, 47(1), 1-15.

  • Winchester, N., & Stefani, R. T. (2013). An innovative approach to National Football League standings using bonus points. Applied Economics, 45(1), 123-134. doi:10.1080/00036846.2011.595694

  • Winchester, N. (2012). The impact of border carbon adjustments under alternative producer responses. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 94(2), 354-359. doi:10.1093/ajae/aar113

  • Winchester, N., Rau, M. -L., Goetz, C., Larue, B., Otsuki, T., Shutes, K., . . . Nunes de Faria, R. (2012). The Impact of regulatory heterogeneity on agri-food trade. The World Economy, 35(8), 973-993. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9701.2012.01457.x

  • Malina, R., McConnachie, D., Winchester, N., Wollersheim, C., Paltsev, S., & Waitz, I. A. (2012). The impact of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme on US aviation. Journal of Air Transport Management, 19, 36-41. doi:10.1016/j.jairtraman.2011.12.004

  • Paltsev, S., Jacoby, H. D., Reilly, J. M., Ejaz, Q. J., Morris, J., O'Sullivan, F., . . . Kragha, O. (2011). The future of U.S. natural gas production, use, and trade. ENERGY POLICY, 39(9), 5309-5321. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.05.033

  • GAVARD, C., WINCHESTER, N., JACOBY, H., & PALTSEV, S. (2011). WHAT TO EXPECT FROM SECTORAL TRADING: A US-CHINA EXAMPLE. Climate Change Economics, 02(01), 9-26. doi:10.1142/s201000781100019x

  • Zaks, D. P. M., Winchester, N., Kucharik, C. J., Barford, C. C., Paltsev, S., & Reilly, J. M. (2011). Contribution of anaerobic digesters to emissions mitigation and electricity generation under U.S. climate policy. Environmental Science & Technology, 45(16), 6735-6742. doi:10.1021/es104227y

  • Winchester, N., Paltsev, S., & Reilly, J. M. (2011). Will Border Carbon Adjustments Work?. B E JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS & POLICY, 11(1). doi:10.2202/1935-1682.2696

  • Lenten, L. J. A., & Winchester, N. (2010). Optimal Bonus Points in the Australian Football League*. Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy, 29(4), 407-420. doi:10.1111/j.1759-3441.2010.00083.x

  • Ballingall, J., & Winchester, N. (2010). Food Miles: Starving the Poor?. WORLD ECONOMY, 33(10), 1201-1217. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9701.2010.01270.x

  • Charteris, A., & Winchester, N. (2010). Dairy disaggregation and joint production in an economy-wide model. AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS, 54(4), 491-507. doi:10.1111/j.1467-8489.2010.00508.x

  • Winchester, N. (2009). Is there a dirty little secret? Non-tariff barriers and the gains from trade. JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING, 31(6), 819-834. doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2009.08.004

  • Winchester, N. (2008). Searching for the smoking gun: Did trade hurt unskilled workers?. ECONOMIC RECORD, 84(265), 141-156. doi:10.1111/j.1475-4932.2008.00459.x

  • Winchester, N. (2008). Shifting the 'Goal Posts': Optimizing the Allocation of Competition Points for Sporting Contests. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 4(4). doi:10.2202/1559-0410.1119

  • Winchester, N., & Greenaway, D. (2007). Rising wage inequality and capital-skill complementarity. JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING, 29(1), 41-54. doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2006.01.003

  • Winchester, N., Greenaway, D., & Reed, G. V. (2006). Skill classification and the effects of trade on wage inequality. REVIEW OF WORLD ECONOMICS, 142(2), 287-306. doi:10.1007/s10290-006-0068-6

  • Winchester, N. (2006). Liberating middle earth: How will changes in the global trading system affect New Zealand?. New Zealand Economic Papers, 40(1), 45-79. doi:10.1080/00779954.2006.9558552

  • Winchester, N. (2006). A classroom tariff-setting game. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC EDUCATION, 37(4), 431-441. doi:10.3200/JECE.37.4.431-441

Book chapters

  • Winchester, N., Paltsev, S., Morris, J., & Reilly, J. (2010). Costs of Mitigating Climate Change in the United States. In ANNUAL REVIEW OF RESOURCE ECONOMICS, VOL 2, 2010 (Vol. 2, pp. 257-273). doi:10.1146/annurev.resource.012809.104234

  • Winchester, N. (2008). Trade and Rising Wage Inequality: What Can We Learn from a Decade of Computable General Equilibrium Analysis?. In GLOBALISATION AND LABOUR MARKET ADJUSTMENT (pp. 54-72). Retrieved from

Conference contributions

  • Richardson, M., & Winchester, N. (2008). More (or Less) on Necessarily Welfare-Enhancing Free Trade Areas. In GLOBALIZATION AND EMERGING ISSUES IN TRADE THEORY AND POLICY Vol. 5 (pp. 121-138). doi:10.1016/S1574-8715(08)05009-4

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