AUT - Paul S.P. Cowpertwait

Paul S.P. Cowpertwait

Associate Professor (Statistics / Analytics)

Phone: 09 921 9999 ext 5068

Email: paul.cowpertwait@aut.ac.nz

Links to relevant web pages:
http://elena.aut.ac.nz/~pcowpert

Qualifications:

PhD, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, 1992.
BSc (Hons) in Mathematics, 1988.

Memberships and Affiliations:

Chartered Statistician (CStat), Royal Statistical Society, 1996.
Chartered Scientist (CSci), British Science Council, 2010.

Teaching Areas:

My main teaching area is Time Series, which I have taught to undergraduates and postgraduates in statistics, engineering, and finance. I have also taught mainstream courses in statistics and mathematics.

Research Summary:

Research Interests
My main research area is in the simulation of rainfall series for applications in urban hydrology. This draws upon the theory of stochastic processes and, in particular, applied point processes. Involved in this work are extensive computations, drawing upon developments in computer technology, computer science, and statistical programming. In addition, the work involves the application of statistical methodology, which includes the analysis of extreme values. Some recent projects are listed below under “External Research Contracts”.

Publications:

Book

Cowpertwait P.S.P., and Metcalfe A.V. (2009). Introductory Time Series with R. Springer (ISBN 978 0 387 88697 8).

Refereed Journal Articles

Cowpertwait P. (2010). A spatial–temporal point process model of rainfall with a continuous distribution of storm types. Water Resources Research. In press.

Cowpertwait P. (2010). A Neyman-Scott model with continuous distributions of storm types. Australian and New Zealand Industrial and Applied Mathematics Journal, 51, 97-108.

Cowpertwait P., Salinger J., and Mullan B. (2009).    A spatial-temporal stochastic rainfall model for Auckland City: Scenarios for current and future climates. Journal of Hydrology (NZ).

Leonard M., Lambert M.F., Metcalfe A.V., and Cowpertwait P.S.P. (2008).    A space-time Neyman-Scott rainfall model with defined storm extent.    Water Resources Research, W09402 (doi: 10.1029/ 2007WR006110).

Burton A., Kilsby C.G., Fowler H.J., Cowpertwait P.S.P., and O’Connell P.E. (2008). RainSim: A spatial temporal stochastic rainfall modelling system.    Environmental Modelling and Software (doi:10.1016/ j.envsoft.2008.04.003).

Cowpertwait P., Isham V., and Onof C. (2007). Point process models of rainfall: Developments for fine-scale structure. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series A, 463: 2569– 2587.

Cowpertwait P. (2006). A spatial-temporal point process model for the Thames catchment, London. Journal of Hydrology, 330: 586–595.

Cowpertwait P., Lockie T., and Davies M.D. (2006). A stochastic spatial-temporal disaggre- gation model of rainfall. Journal of Hydrology (NZ), 45.

Cowpertwait P. (2004).    Mixed rectangular pulses models of rainfall.    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 8(5): 993–1000.

Cowpertwait P., Kilsby C., and O’Connell P. (2002).    A space-time Neyman-Scott model of rainfall: Empirical analysis of extremes. Water Resources Research, 38(8): 1–14.

Cowpertwait P. (2001). A renewal cluster model for the interarrival times of rainfall events. International Journal of Climatology, 21: 49–61.

Cowpertwait P. (1998). A Poisson-cluster model of rainfall: High order moments and extreme values. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series A, 454: 885–898.

Kilsby C., Cowpertwait P., O’Connell P., and Jones P. (1998).    Predicting rainfall statistics in England and Wales using atmospheric circulation variables. International Journal of Climatology, 18: 523–539.

Cowpertwait P. and O’Connell P.E. (1997).    A regionalised Neyman-Scott model of rainfall with convective and stratiform cells. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 1: 71–80.

Cowpertwait P., O’Connell P., Metcalfe A., and Mawdsley, J. (1996). Stochastic point process modelling of rainfall: I. Single-site fitting and validation.    Journal of Hydrology, 175: 17–46.

Cowpertwait P., O’Connell P., Metcalfe A., and Mawdsley J. (1996). Stochastic point process modelling of rainfall: II. regionalisation and disaggregation. Journal of Hydrology, 175: 47–65.

Cowpertwait P. (1995). A generalized spatial-temporal model of rainfall based on a clustered point process. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series A, 450: 163–175.

Cowpertwait P. (1994). A generalized point process model of rainfall. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series A, 447: 23–37.

Cowpertwait P. and Cox T. (1992).    Clustering population means under heterogeneity of variance with an application to a rainfall time series problem.    The Statistician, 41(1): 113–121.

Cox T. and Cowpertwait P. (1992).    Clustering population means under heterogeneity of variance. The Statistician, 41(5): 591–598.

Cowpertwait P. (1991). Further developments of the Neyman-Scott clustered point process for modeling rainfall. Water Resources Research, 27(7): 1431–1438.

Invited Presentations

Cowpertwait P. (2010). R as a Functional Language. Workshop presented to the Operations Research and Statistics Research Group, University of Adelaide.

Cowpertwait P. (2010).    A spatial-temporal point process model for fine resolution rainfall data in the Roma region. Seminar presented to the Operations Research and Statistics Research Group, University of Adelaide.

Cowpertwait P. (2010). Point Process Rainfall Models: Applications in Urban Hydrology. New Zealand Water and Wastes Association, Auckland Regional Meeting.

Cowpertwait P. (2009) Spatial-temporal Poisson cluster models of rainfall: Applications and further developments. Keynote address to the 9th Engineering Mathematics and Applications Conference (EMAC2009), University of Adelaide.

Refereed Conference Papers

Cowpertwait P. (2010). A spatio–temporal point process model of rainfall for urban drainage applications in the Roma region. 45th Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society, Padua, Italy.

Davis M.D., Kinley P., Salinger M.J., Mullan A.B., Cowpertwait P., James M., Sharman B., and Paterson G. (2007). Rainfall Input for Master Urban Drainage Planning: The Integrated Catchment Study of Auckland City (New Zealand). American Society of Civil Engineers Conference Proceedings, 243, 52: 1–14.

Namjou P., Strayton G., Pattle A., Davis M.D., Kinley P., Cowpertwait P., Salinger M.J., Mullan A.B., Paterson G., and Sharman B. (2006).    The Integrated Catchment Study of Auckland City (New Zealand): Long Term Groundwater Behaviour and Assessment. American Society of Civil Engineers Conference Proceedings (doi 10.1061/40856(200)311).

Namjou P., Strayton G., Pattle A., Davis M.D., Kinley P., Cowpertwait P., Salinger M.J., Mullan A.B., and Paterson G. (2005).    Groundwater Behaviour in a Fractured Basalt Aquifer under Existing and Future Climate and Land Use in Auckland City (New Zealand). American Society of Civil Engineers Conference Proceedings (doi 10.1061/40792(173)383).

Frost A.J., Srikanthan R., and Cowpertwait P.S.P. (2005).    Stochastic Generation of Point Rainfall Data at Sub-Daily Timescales: A Comparison of DRIP and NSRP. In Proceedings of the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (Editors: Andre Zerger and Robert M. Argent), 1813–1819.

Lockie T., Cowpertwait P., Davis M., Kinley P., and Paterson G. (2003).    Evaluation of Historic and Stochastic Rainfall in Network Modelling in the Integrated Catchment Study of Auckland, New Zealand. American Society of Civil Engineers Conference Proceedings, 118, 282: 2841–2853.

Threlfall J., Cowpertwait P., Strandner H., and Clifforde I. (1999).   Temporal and spatial rainfall model simulations for integrated urban wastewater system modelling. Danish Hydraulic Institute Software Conference, Helsingor, Denmark.


Edited Books and Proceedings

Cowpertwait P., Calude E., and Reyes N., Editors (2000-2009, Volumes 1–13).Research Letters in the Information and Mathematical Sciences (ISSN 1175-2777). Available online at http:// iims.massey.ac.nz/research/letters

Wake G. and Cowpertwait P., Guest Editors (2007).    Statistics and applied probability: A tribute to Jeffrey J. Hunter.    Special Issue of the Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences. Published by Hindawi (ISBN 9789774540059). Also available online at: http://www.hindawi.com/journals/jamds/volume-2007

Cowpertwait P., Editor (2005). Proceedings of the 14th International Workshop on Matrices and Statistics, Massey University, Albany Campus, March 29 to April 1. Published in Research Letters in the Information and Mathematical Sciences (ISSN 1175-2777/8).

Cowpertwait P. and Hunter J. (2005).    Book of Abstracts, 14th International Workshop on Matrices and Statistics, Massey University, Albany Campus, March 29 to April 1.

Contributions within Books

Cowpertwait P., Wake G., Anderson R.D., Edwards H., and Searle S. (2007).    Editorial for “Statistics and Applied Probability: A Tribute to Jeffrey J. Hunter” (edited by G. Wake and P. Cowpertwait). Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences, 7: 1–4. Hindawi Publishing Corporation (ISBN 978 977 454 0059). Also available online (doi:10.1155/2007/57619).

Hashemi A., O’Connell P.E., Franchini M., Cowpertwait P. (1998). A simulation analysis of the factors controlling the shapes of flood frequency curves. “Hydrology in a Changing Environment” (edited by H. Wheater and C. Kirby). Volume III: 39–49.

Cowpertwait P., and O’Connell P. (1992). A Neyman-Scott shot noise model for the generation of daily streamflow time series.    Chapter 6 in “Advances in Theoretical Hydrology – A Tribute to James Dooge” (edited by J.P. O’Kane). European Geophysical Society Series on Hydrological Sciences, 1. Elsevier Science Publishers (ISBN 0 444 89831).


External Contract Research and Consultancy

Water Research Centre and Acea Spa, 2010. Development of a space time stochastic model of rainfall for use in upgrading the sewerage network in Rome, Italy.

Australian Research Council (ARC), 2007–2009. A stochastic space-time model of rainfall fields in large heterogeneous regions (with Lambert, Kuczera, Metcalfe, and Thyer; ARC Discovery grant DP0770860).

Scottish Water & Metropolitan Glasgow Strategic Drainage Partnership, 2008. Development of a space-time stochastic rainfall model for use in Glasgow’s £6-million sewerage and drainage rehabilitation programme aimed at improving the environment and reducing the risk of flooding. Project coordinated by the Water Research Centre (WRc, UK).

Scottish Water, 2007. Development of a space-time stochastic rainfall model for the Irvine catchment, Scotland, to aid designs that improve the quality of the bathing waters and the natural environment at Irvine Bay and in the River Irvine. Project coordinated by the WRc.

Thames Water, 2004–2006. Development of a spatial–temporal stochastic rainfall model for Thames, London, for use in the Tideway Tunnels project. Coordinated by the WRc.

Water Research Centre (WRc, UK), 2004. Development of algorithms to stochastically disaggregate rainfall data to five minute values.

Metrowater and Auckland Regional Council, 2001–2004. Generation of long records of rainfall (500 years) for the current climate and a future climate under global warming for use in the $23.5-million Auckland City Integrated Catchment Study.

North Shore City Council, 2003. Simulation of current and future rainfall scenarios under global warming to help assess the risks associated with a change in climate on North Shore City’s drainage system and infrastructure.

Water Research Centre (WRc, UK), 2000. Development of algorithms to improve the simula- tion of extreme rainfall events for urban drainage applications.